Doorstop, Federal Press Gallery

5 June 2024

JOURNALIST: Jane, just a reaction to the RBA saying it's not going to factor in power bill subsidies when it comes to deciding rates.

JANE HUME: Well, certainly one of the things we've been asking the RBA, and indeed Treasury about the difference in their inflation forecasts that were made only six days apart. Now Chris Bowen belled the cat. He said that those energy rebates were made without having any means testing associated with those so that you could bring down headline inflation. Well, I think Michele Bullock has made it very clear today that that's not going to be taken into consideration in the RBA decisions to whether to raise interest rates or not. In fact, she was saying that her big concerns were twofold. One was that we're expecting very weak economy data to come out of this National Accounts due in the next couple of hours. And two that inflation wouldn't come back down to band at a rate at which the RBA had forecast and if that's the case, she said she would have no hesitation in raising interest rates again. That will send a chill down the spines to many Australians, particularly those that have a mortgage that we know are doing it tough.

JOURNALIST: Did the RBA Governor, explain, do you think adequately big discrepancy between what the RBA thinks is going to happen to inflation and Treasury?

JANE HUME: I think it's a very unusual situation that the RBA and Treasury would have different forecasts in the first place. And one of the things we were trying to tease out is how that decision can be made particularly when the Treasury Secretary sits on the board of the RBA. He must have known what's going on in the Budget, what goes into those Treasury forecasts, as well as the RBA forecasts. So that's something that we want to seek to understand. I think what's the real concern now is if those forecasts that says inflation is not going to come down to band as quickly as the RBA, or indeed Treasury would've liked, well, that's going to have massive implications for interest rates. And more importantly, if we can't walk that narrow path and that was what Michele Bullock was describing as a "very narrow path" with a weak economy on one side, and inflation not coming back down to band fast enough on the other side, well, that could send us into recession and that's a real shame.

JOURNALIST: Can I just ask your reaction to the laws criminalising deep fake porn being shared without consent, whether you think criminalization is going to stop young kids accessing such apps?

JANE HUME: You could ask me those questions, unfortunately that's not what I've immersed myself in for the last week and a half. Obviously, I've been in the Treasury portfolio...[inaudible]

JOURNALIST: What do you expect in the GDP figures today?

JANE HUME: Well, I think if Michele Bullock is right, we would expect very weak GDP figures. That we would see a continuation of this per capita recession. The only reason that GDP is positive at the moment is because of those high immigration figures propping up GDP, propping up consumer demand. If you took away those high immigration figures, there's a chance that we may well be in a technical recession as well as a per capita recession.