Interview with Ali Moore, ABC Melbourne Drive

1 March 2024

ALI MOORE: And we've talked about the Dunkley by-election now for months. It's happening because of the death of the former Labor MP Peta Murphy. It is the first test of the Government's change to the stage three tax cuts, and it's been held up as a test, really for both parties. Jane Hume is a Senator for Victoria. Shadow Minister for Finance. Jane Hume, welcome to Drive.

JANE HUME: Good to be with you, Ali.

ALI MOORE: Can I just start before I get to Dunkley? Where do you get your news from?

JANE HUME: I get my news from all over the place. Unfortunately, I am officially a news junkie, so I think I have an app for every single news source. And I have to admit, every morning and every evening before I go to bed, I consume the lot.

ALI MOORE: It takes quite a long time, doesn't it?

JANE HUME: It actually does. I've got to say, one of the things about being out on the pre-poll in Dunkley today was that I was out of the loop of the news cycle. I wasn't looking at my phone the whole time. So yes, I'm catching up this afternoon listening to you.

ALI MOORE: So tell me, what do you, you've been on the pre-poll. What's the mood across the water? We’re in Geelong, so going across the bay. What's the mood?

JANE HUME: Actually it's quite upbeat on pre-poll. There's three different pre-polls out there in Dunkley. I've been to two of them today. There's a touch of the sort of carnival like atmosphere. It's very busy. It's certainly, you know, for a seat that has a margin of 6.3%, we wouldn't normally call that a marginal seat, but it does feel like a marginal seat campaign. It is very competitive on the ground. But that said, for the most part people are behaving exceptionally well. There's big queues now today, in particular out the front of pre-poll. I think it was a bit slower early in the week, particularly in the hot weather, but now everybody's getting out and, either trying to vote early or, you know, revving up for tomorrow.

ALI MOORE: Do you know how many people have voted early? I think the polls have been open for two weeks I want to say?.

JANE HUME: Yes, look, I don't know the exact number. It was averaging around 1300 a day from each of the big booths and around 800 or so from the one smaller one. But of course, the weather does make a big difference on those 40 degree days. Only fools and horses get out there and political activists get out there on the voting booths.

ALI MOORE: So tomorrow you've got a, there's a margin there that Labor holds the seat by 6.3%. Richard Marles was saying to us that if you look at average swings in by elections, there's a 7% swing history. So going on that they're going to lose the seat. Do you reckon you're going to win it?

JANE HUME: I don't know where they get the 7% figure from because I've looked at this data and for a first term government, the average swing in a by-election since going back to World War Two has been around 1.5%. So that's not enormous at all. And of course this is Victoria too. It's a Labor stronghold and in a by-election against an incumbent government, the average has only been around 0.7%. And let's not forget, this is not a by-election that's caused by, you know, somebody retiring or a scandal or anything like that. This was a well loved local member that passed away. So there's an awful lot of affection and, goodwill towards Peta Murphy and her family here. Look, we are feeling very positive because we have such a great candidate in Nathan Conroy. Obviously he's been the mayor three times, so he's very well known. And uh, and he's, you know, he's got a young family that gives him day-care and, you know, childcare in the area. And his wife Steffie went to school and Carrum Downs. And so he's very well known, which is great. Uh, but I think we need to, you know, recognise this is a big ask. He's very popular. But you know, Labor are sort of putting it out there. But unless we have a thumping great victory, well, it's a failure on behalf of the Liberal Party, I don't think that that's the case at all.

ALI MOORE: So it does sound to me a little like, you're both trying to make it sound like you're the underdogs. Do you think that's fair?

JANE HUME: Well, I think if you're not in government, you're officially the underdog. Now, as I said, we have a great candidate. We've been working really hard. But it's a big ask. 6.3% would be unheard of in a by-election. And that we've got our fingers crossed. We're putting our shoulders to the wheel. But I think we need to be realistic about this.

ALI MOORE: Senator Hume, can I ask you in the context of the Dunkley by election, of course, we've had the situation yesterday where we had one of the released former immigration detainees, rearrested, charged, named, and then three hours later, police withdrawing the charge, saying it was a case of mistaken identity. The deputy opposition leader, Sussan Ley, linked that issue to the Dunkley by-election in parliament yesterday with a number of tweets that unless it's happened while I'm on air, she hasn't withdrawn. Do you know if she has deleted those tweets?

JANE HUME: I haven't looked at her social media, I'm afraid so. I can't answer that one.

ALI MOORE: What do you think of her linking the case of mistaken identity and the tweets that, uh, your deputy leader put out?

JANE HUME: Well, look, I'd first say that not just Sussan Ley but everybody in Parliament, Labor, Liberal, crossbench, we were all relying on information that came from the Victorian police and from Border Force. When they make public releases, we tend not to second guess them. So there was no reason to think that they were wrong and of course, when the questions were asked at the Labor Party, they also assumed that they were true.

ALI MOORE: But yes, once the situation is corrected, should it not also tweets that were relying on incorrect information, you know, at the time, police obviously felt it was correct. They charged the man. But once they have withdrawn the charges, should the tweet not also be withdrawn?

JANE HUME: Well, I don't want to comment on that in case it has. And you know, it’s a moot point-

ALI MOORE: It hasn't. We can tell you it hasn't.

JANE HUME: Okay, well the simple fact remains that, you know the Albanese government released 149 people, hardened criminals from immigration detention. They are non-citizens. They're people that should have been deported. And they include people that have committed the most heinous of crimes, sexual assault and rapes and paedophiles. They've been released into the community and they didn't need to be. This is a reflection of a very bad government decision that has not been remedied by the remedy that we gave them.

ALI MOORE: So essentially-

JANE HUME: They said could we have preventative detention orders. They said it was urgent. We gave it to them in the parliament and they haven't used them. It's been two months and these people are still walking around and they are re-offending.

ALI MOORE: So Senator Hume, can I just clarify the tweet that was put out yesterday by the Deputy Opposition leader ‘If you live in Frankston and you've got a problem with Victorian women being assaulted by foreign criminals, vote against Labor’. You agree with the tweet?

JANE HUME: Well, I think that was done in the context of the time, but the issue remains.

ALI MOORE: So should it be withdrawn? It either is okay or it should be withdrawn.

JANE HUME: Ali there are criminals now in the community that shouldn't be in the community because of the decisions that this government has made. This is a failure of the Albanese government. It's a failure of Minister Giles who should have let's face it, who should have resigned for this before Christmas? He hasn't done so, Anthony Albanese has stood by him despite this catastrophic failure of responsible government.

ALI MOORE: Jane Hume I'll look forward to talking to you next week when we know the outcome of Dunkley.

JANE HUME: Yeah. Good to be with you, Ali.

ALI MOORE: Senator Jane Hume there, Senator for Victoria and Shadow Minister for Finance.