Interview with Danica De Giorgio, Sky News
28 January 2024
DANICA DE GIORGIO: Joining me now to discuss what cost of living will mean for Albanese is Herald Sun business commentator Terry McCrann, Chair of the Cost of Living Committee and LNP Senator Jane Hume and former Labor senator and minister Stephen Conroy. Great to see you all, thank you so much for joining us tonight. Look, let's get straight into it and start with the stage three tax cuts backflip. Terry, this week, Albo will begin his hard sell on the changes, a big tour of middle Australia. How hard will this sell be?
TERRY MCCRANN: Well, it's gonna be a tough sell. I think for the most fundamental of reasons Danica, excuse me, nothing actually happens, assuming that Albo is able to get the changes through the Senate, until July 1st. So once again, it is a promise not a delivery. So this is fundamental in terms of the reality of those voters out there in Dunkley and, indeed, people Australians generally, this is a promise that a significant number of them will be getting a bigger tax cut come July 1, but it's not going to actually be delivered. And the reality of Cost of living is that today it's now they have to buy their petrol, they have to buy their groceries, they have to pay those interest rates now. So, excuse me, so reality is what's going to be driving how people react to the Prime Minister and indeed, reality is going to be driving what happens in the economy.
DANICA DE GIORGIO: Well, this is a problem because there's no immediate relief. There's no immediate plans. Stephen, he was elected on this promise, and he's lied. How can he come back from this?
STEPHEN CONROY: Well there's no question that he will lose some paint over this change position. But we will have a by election very shortly. Five, six weeks until the Dunkley by election and that'll be the first test about whether Peter Duttons campaign that ‘Albo’s a liar’ or the Australian public will get a chance to say, ‘we actually think this is a fair tax cut’ and addresses the, some of the, cost of living hurt that Australia is feeling at the moment. So I think you'll get a real test within a very short period of time or whether you have a simple, cheap political line that Peter Dutton will run for the next five weeks, or the Australian public will go ‘no, we deserve this and we're grateful and we support this change.’
DANICA DE GIORGIO: But how can he come back from this? He told us more than 100 times, he said this, he made this promise. This is him in the last six weeks:
(excerpt) JOURNALIST: Stage Three is absolutely locked in?
ANTHONY ALBANESE: Yes.
JOURNALIST: There are no circumstances under which you would seek to roll back Stage Three?
ANTHONY ALBANESE: None.
ANTHONY ALBANESE: Labor will support all of the legislative tax cuts. We won't seek to change those legislated tax cuts and we support tax cuts and everyone will be getting a tax cut. People are entitled to have that certainty of the tax cut.
JOURNALIST: Can you promise to those Australian families the Stage Three tax cuts will come into effect in July in full?
ANTHONY ALBANESE: Well, we haven't changed our position on that, Michael.
JOURNALIST: I'll ask that question again. Can you promise, as you did before the Election, the Stage Three tax cuts will come in, in full in July?
ANTHONY ALBANESE: Well, I've said we haven't changed our position.
JOURNALIST: But can you promise on that?
ANTHONY ALBANESE: I've said I can't be clearer than that. We haven't changed our position. Well we haven't changed our position.
JOURNALIST: But it's not exactly a promise PM. It was a promise before the election. Has the promise changed?
ANTHONY ALBANESE: You can play word games Michael's nothing has changed.
DANICA DE GIORGIO: Stephen, seriously how can he come back from that?
STEPHEN CONROY: Well, as I said, there's no question he's going to lose some paint over the changed position. But the Australian public, when you say “how will he come back”, well in Dunkley, we'll get an indication of whether or not there is a huge amount of paint, or there is just an acceptance by the Australian public that this was the right decision. A changed set of economic circumstances has meant the broader Australian public needed this more than the smaller group that we're just going to receive it. The test of you know, how can you come back, will be in about five weeks.
DANICA DE GIORGIO: Well, we'll certainly see so. Jane, I want to bring you in on this conversation now because essentially this wedges in the opposition to make a decision on whether it will support the changes or not. What do you have to say to that?
JANE HUME: Well, forgive me Danica if we decide not to make a decision until we see the Legislation because quite frankly, I think Anthony Albanese has proven himself untrustworthy. We would like to see the details in the Legislation before we make a call. Let's recall the superannuation legislation. There were so many booby traps in that, there was no way we could have made a decision before we saw that legislation and he's just proven the point again. Stephen's right. He hasn't just lost paint, he's actually dented the duco here I think, on his integrity. In fact, let's recall that the last election was fought on two issues, integrity and cost of living, and he has failed both his own benchmarks here. Because these tax cuts actually do very little to address the cost of living. Not only do they not kick in until 155 days away, people need cost of living relief right now, but they fundamentally unwind one of the great drivers of the cost of living crisis which is tax and bracket creep. Anthony Albanese is clearly very comfortable with bracket creep because he's maintained that 37% tax bracket, and not only that, but by Treasury's own estimates, they're going to make an additional $28 billion from this decision over the next decade. This is not a cost of living measure. This is a redistributionist agenda that has been done for political purposes. There is no doubt about that.
DANICA DE GIORGIO: Right. So Steven, is this a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul?
STEPHEN CONROY: Not at all, I mean, trying to claim that in over 10 years, 28 billion, that's $2.8 billion a year like that, that doesn't even come close to denting anything. So this argument, there's suddenly some great new tax impost. I mean, find another line Jane because that one is going to work. Just cause you know, you roll up these numbers together. But this isn't about robbing Peter to pay Paul. Everyone is still getting a tax cut. It's just that the tax cuts are going to be felt more by those below $150,000.
DANICA DE GIORGIO: But it wasn't what was promised Stephen at the beginning. You can't just come out 'everyone's getting a tax cut, you're getting a tax cut'. It's not what was promised initially. That's the problem.
STEPHEN CONROY: No, no Albo. There's no question Albo will lose paint over this and the people of Dunkley are a fair cross section and this is a seat that Bruce Billson very successfully held for years and years and years. So this is not a natural Labor seat. The 'we hate Scomo' feeling was as strong in Dunkley as it was everywhere else. So that 6% margin is a much slimmer margin than traditionally. Bruce Billson held this for years. I mean, this is a seat that is-
JANE HUME: Don't you think it's amazing Stephen, absolutely amazing, that even though one week ago, less than a week ago, Anthony Albanese was saying 'our position has not changed on these tax cuts'. Within a week, he's already come out and said 87% of people in Dunkley will benefit from this. Really? You've done the numbers that quickly, have you? Well, I can tell you one thing, Nathan Conroy said it on the weekend, 100% of the people in Dunkley don't like being lied to. And that's what's happened. He has lied. He's looked Australians in the eye and over 100 times, he has lied. He has failed his own benchmark of integrity. This is fatal for Anthony Albanese's prime ministership.
DANICA DE GIORGIO: Alright, Terry. I want to bring you in on this. Let's talk about Dunkley. As Steven just mentioned, the margin is sitting at about 6% right now. There's no doubt that Labor's done some internal polling on this. They'd be worried. Do you think that he's rushed this through to create this perception of actually helping you because it suits your demographic?
TERRY MCCRANN: Well, clearly something changed Danica because I'm going to pick up on the point that's been made about the lying, the critical thing and to make point about that is that the lying continued after the government asked Treasury to change the tax cuts, because Treasury was instructed to do so and despite and the Prime Minister continued to say no, we're going to continue to deliver them as as structured. So that clearly, as you get to the end of 2023, there was serious concern in the Labor Party and in Government, about the impact of the failure of policy since the Election. I mean, we go back to the Election, and we were told that the incoming Government had a plan to basically cure all the problems that Australians were facing. The petrol prices, electricity prices, cost of living, etc. And it hasn't worked. So clearly the Government went into panic mode towards the end of 2023. And what's the magic bullet that they thought they could grab for and it was obviously this package and it was obviously the promise of putting money in the pockets of a clear majority of Australians and there's no question about it. It is a dark shift from a balanced taxpayers to one that favors lower income earners. And I have to disagree with the Prime Minister and with Steve, everybody is not getting a tax cut. When you take into account the bracket creep that's happened since 2018. When the package was structured; Stage One, Stage Two, Stage Three. High income earners were going to get some relief from bracket creep and they have to wait till 2024.
DANICA DE GIORGIO: And this is the biggest problem. Jane do you think that Albanese is a one term Prime Minister?
JANE HUME: I think he has to be a one term Prime Minister. I can't understand how he can come back from this because let's face it, what is he going to promise next and how can we possibly believe in that promise? He can't go into the next election whether it'd be a promise on infrastructure, on economic management, on budget management, whatever it is, no one will believe him from now on. He went to the last election saying he had all the solutions to the cost of living crisis. It's only gotten worse since then. Australians are really doing it tough and the only way you can bring down the cost of living for all Australians is to lower inflation. This Government has fundamentally failed in that quest. And one of the reasons why is because its obsession with its energy policy is failing Australians. It’s pushing up the cost of businesses, it’s pushing up the cost of households and Australians are paying the price. Inflation, interest rates and bracket creep are what are causing the cost of living crisis. Anthony Albanese has failed to deal with any of it.
DANICA DE GIORGIO: Stephen, what are the chances of an early election over this? Say for instance, if the Reserve Bank looks at cutting rates middle of the air, is he going to seize on this to try and gain some momentum for himself.
STEPHEN CONROY: Look, I think there is zero chance I know, particularly those of us, you know, who follow politics closely, love a good election. But I think there's zero chance this year. I think they will want to say the Reserve Bank start to reverse their idiot increase that they put up September/October, which is just embarrassing for the new Reserve Bank Governor. I think if interest rates start to come off over the next six to eight months, I think by the end of the year, you'll see a substantial reduction and then through again into March and April next year, which is the most likely timing. So I would think that the natural economic cycle is not going to move in the Labor's favor over the next 12 months. And I think that if you were to call an early election, you'd be wasting a chance to point to we've succeeded in dealing with those issues.
DANICA DE GIORGIO: Stephen, where does it leave the Prime Minister realistically, is he a one term PM?
STEPHEN CONROY: No, I did hear you say that people were already canvassing names. They've, look, I confess I've not been in touch with a lot of my colleagues over the last few weeks, being the Christmas period. But I can absolutely guarantee you there is no rumblings and there is no issues. And Anthony Albanese will lead Labor to the next election and in my view, he will win the next election.
DANICA DE GIORGIO: So not Jim Chalmers. What about Jim Chalmers, is he an option? Is he an option on the table?
STEPHEN CONROY: There is no option. Anthony Albanese, Anthony Albanese will be the Prime Minister going into the next election and he will win the next Election.
DANICA DE GIORGIO: Alright Terry, bring you in on this. It's just not a good look. The PM has been on the nose, of course, since the Voice Referendum at the polling isn't very good. How do you see this playing out over the next few years?
TERRY MCCRANN: Well, I think it's not going to be easy. I'd have to agree with Stephen that I don't see an early election , so I mean, my colleague on my right here might like to see and early election, but it's not going to happen precisely because the Government's going to be under pressure politically as well as in terms of policies through the course of 2024. It's not going to be an environment which the Prime Minister is going to say ‘whoopie I can now go to an election and win easily.’ So he's going to be in defensive mode all the way through 2024 and I caution people to anticipate against the Reserve Bank, slashing interest rates through the course of 2024. I mean, and equally, if we get big interest rate cuts, that doesn't actually announce necessarily that the economy is in great shape, it would probably announce that the economy is actually in bad trouble if we've got really serious interest rate cuts. The sort of interest rate cuts that people would actually feel the benefit of. So I think that 2024 is going to be a fairly turbulent year on all fronts. This is not a year for Prime Ministers to get away with slick policy promotions, and be able to dazzle the punter. The Punter wants reality in terms of their hip pocket.
DANICA DE GIORGIO: Fair enough. Immediate relief, that's what they want. It's been great to speak with you Terry McCrann, Jane Hume and Stephen Conroy, thank you so much for joining us this evening.