Interview with Laura Jayes, AM Agenda

5 June 2024

LAURA JAYES: Welcome back. Well, we're going to get some important economic data. An official read on how the economy is going in about an hour from now. Joining me live is the Shadow Finance Minister, Jane Hume, who's just been in that Senate Estimates hearing where we heard from the Governor, Michele Bullock. Jane, most notable was that Michele Bullock said that they're going to look through that energy rebate. This was the artificial measure to bring inflation down, but essentially the RBA has just said they're not going to take that into account when it comes to the next interest rate decision. Is that right? Or am I verballing her?

JANE HUME: Well, no, I think that that was the impression that I got from Michele Bullock's testimony this morning, as well, as she said that it was essentially inconsequential, its effect on inflation. Which I think is worth teasing out a little bit further, because obviously the RBA's forecast for inflation differs to that of the Treasury and of the Government’s in the Budget, even though they were made only six days apart and that's something that we've been seeking to understand, with questions to Treasury and also in questions to the RBA today. But Michele Bullock also made some rather strident claims, saying that should inflation not come back down to band, at the pace at which the RBA expects, that they will have no hesitation in lifting interest rates again.

LAURA JAYES (INTERRUPTS): Wouldn’t expect her to say anything else there, would you though?

JANE HUME: Well, that's their job, is to bring down inflation, and you'd certainly expect that that would put a chill down the spine of the thousands of thousands of mortgaged households out there, that we know are really doing it tough after the 11 rate rises under this Government.

LAURA JAYES: We get our GDP figures, as I mentioned, out in about an hour, most economists expect the economy to slow. We see a reduction in consumer spending, month on month. We see businesses reporting a reduction in profit. All in all, the economy is slowing. That's what we want, don't we?

JANE HUME: Well, certainly, but it's a very fine line. In fact, I think Michele Bullock called it a narrow path, to make sure that while we want the economy to slow, to bring inflation down, we don't necessarily want to tip it over into recession. We're already in a technical recession, sorry, a per capita recession, I should say, because of the very high immigration figures, the population is essentially keeping the economy afloat. You remove those excessive immigration figures, we would already be in a technical recession, and that is of great concern. You don't need to tell a household the, you know, the economic vernacular, they can feel it every single day, that they are really doing it tough right now, and potentially the decisions that the Government are making could be making it worse, not better.

LAURA JAYES: Okay, let me ask you quickly about the NDIS, because I'm about to have Bill Shorten on the program as well. I just thought, it’s stunning, I think we already knew the extent of the rorts, of the NDIS, but when it's laid out by the guy who's charged with clamping down on fraud, and he's essentially saying, you know, he can only do some things at the fringes, and the extent of fraud and rorting and overspending of taxpayers' money in the system is so extensive. I mean, this legislation before Parliament isn't really enough.

JANE HUME: Well, this legislation before Parliament is what is supposed to reduce the limit of this expenditure on the NDIS. You'll recall that it was growing at around 14%. I actually think it went up to around 21% in growth and expenditure, and this is supposed to bring it back down into the 8% per annum range. 8% growth in a payment is still enormous. It's the second largest payment in the Budget. It's around $45 billion which is why I think that taxpayers have a very high expectation of the integrity around the expenditure and when they hear stories like this, these shocking stories of how NDIS funds are being misused. Well that, I think they rightly have questions to answer to or to ask, but at the same time, we know that the NDIS is a really important program. There's around 660,000 Australians that rely on it. It helps some of our most disadvantaged Australians. We need to have not just a sustainable system, but a system in which all Australians can trust is being run with the right integrity framework around it, to make sure that the money is getting to where it is needed the most, to ensure that those people with profound disabilities can have you know fully, be fully immersed in economy, into society and have rich and full lives.

LAURA JAYES: Jane, thank you. We look forward to talking to you again soon.