Interview with Tom Connell, Afternoon Agenda

1 March 2024

TOM CONNELL: Well, there's a lot of expectation management going on as ever ahead of the Dunkley by-election. Some various claims. Peter Dutton says, well, any swing would be good, really. Anthony Albanese claims 7% is the usual swing against governments. I haven't seen any evidence of that someone that will cut through all that is my next guest Shadow Finance Minister Jane Hume is in Carrum Downs campaigning. Jane, we like it. You tell it how it is. So what's a good result here for the Coalition with the Liberal Party more specifically?

JANE HUME: We'll look before we get into what's going on here at sunny Carrum Downs. Tom, can I just first please pay tribute and acknowledge the passing of our colleague, Linda White in the Senate. This was really sad news to hear first thing this morning. Obviously, a by-election is a time when we have the battle of ideas and no booths are a bit rough and wheeling. But quite frankly, this was sent us all reeling this morning and, and both Labor and Liberal volunteers united in the grief of the passing of Linda. So just let me put that one out there first, she was a lovely lady. And she made a real contribution in the short time that she had on the Senate. So yes, I am here today in Carrum Downs and it is a beautiful day. If the temperature is heating up literally and figuratively, I think. And certainly the booths are very busy, very crowded. It's got a carnival like atmosphere. And there is a really buoyant mood here. I know Nathan Conroy is a terrific candidate, he has been working really hard. He's been very well received. And of course, he is a local boy, his wife is actually from Carrum downs. And she's out here on the booth with me today saying hello to former students from her school and teachers and all sorts of things, which is terrific. So we're hoping for a very good results tomorrow. Obviously 6.3% is a very big margin, we wouldn't normally call a 6.3% seat, a marginal seat, but there is certainly a marginal seat feel to this by election.

TOM CONNELL: So that must mean you're expecting a decent swing, the current conditions, the cost of living the way this is hitting some of those in that electorate, including where you are now, you can't get a swing now, when inflation is still much higher than it all in likely will be in the next six months or year when you have to get a decent swing here, don't you to give you some hope.

JANE HUME: Well, there is no doubt that there is a growing sense of disquiet. Indeed stretching to anger from a lot of residents here in Carrum Downs. The same goes in Frankston where I was this morning about the cost of living and how it has taken this government such a long time to come down. Quite frankly, the government seems to have been focussed on everything else other than its number one job which is to improve the standard of living and the quality of life for ordinary Australians. This is a suburb where average mortgage holder lives. They've seen their mortgages increased by thousands of dollars. They've seen their real disposable income come backwards by thousands of dollars. Of course they're going to pocket a tax cut. But will they thank the Labor government for the lie that went with it? We'll see that in the long term, but we'll also see it play out tomorrow night.

TOM CONNELL: We will that will test out the Coalition and the Liberal party's out of suburban strategy. What about the Teals strategy? So if you cast your mind to the 2022 election, and compare it to now. For those voters that deserted the Liberal party went to Teals. What's changed? Why would they vote for the Liberal Party now and they didn't then?

JANE HUME: Well, interestingly, there isn't a Teal that's put their hand up down here in Dunkley, which I was quite surprised about. I think that perhaps the Teals like to play in their own safe spaces. Quite frankly, here in Carrum Downs, in Frankston South and indeed even in Mount Eliza, Langwarrin, Skye, what we're seeing is people that are really doing it tough. You know, this is where, you know, ordinary Australians live, ordinary Australians work, they raised their family, they want to get their kids to school, they want a better life, and they're seeing it now their, you know, their standard of living go backwards under this government. They're seeing more and more taxes through things like they know the emissions tax on Utes and SUVs is going to make a real difference to their lifestyles. They're seeing the cost of groceries go up. And of course, this is Victoria. electricity costs and gas costs have gone through the roof here. Everybody is feeling it in their hip pockets, and they want to take it out on the government.

TOM CONNELL: What I've asked you about to voters and you've pivoted there to outer suburban voters and ordinary Australians, so they're the sort of ordinary Australians you're worried about. Inner City, wealthier ones, have they dropped off the radar for Liberal party?

JANE HUME: Well, there aren't any Teal voters here because there isn't a Teal in the race. Tom, you know, this is not Teal territory.

TOM CONNELL: I'm asking you about the strategy. Now I understand that what I'm asking you about is if you cast your mind back to 2022, and then look now ahead of the next election for voters in the Teal seats. What would they vote for now what's changed about the Liberal Party, they might go back to it?

JANE HUME: Well, let's wait until the next election before we start talking about which Teals are running and which ones aren't. I would imagine that a lot of them would like to reconfirm their vote from 2019. Just for, if for no other reason than because they, they want to be proved right. However, let's face it, you know, the Teals, sitting on the crossbench. They do a lot of talking and a lot of media, but they don't actually have much influence over a government. So let's see how it goes in the lead up to the next election.

TOM CONNELL: I don't know and, you know, hung parliament, they might. A couple of your colleagues are saying to me this week, you're the sort of person that might go well, in a Teal seat would you ever put your hand up for the lower house?

JANE HUME: Why would I do that? I'm a very happy senator.

TOM CONNELL: So that's a no?

JANE HUME: I'm a very happy senator. And I'm very happy representing my party in the Senate. So no, that's not on my agenda. Thanks Tom. Thanks for the vote of confidence, though.

TOM CONNELL: Well, I just like to put these things out there. I don't know I didn't mean to if I did, that. It's been a busy morning. Let me ask you about Sussan Ley's tweet. So this was off the back of the initial reports around a detainee being arrested yesterday, Turned out not to be them at all. She wrote, 'if you live in Frankston, you've got a problem with Victorian women being assaulted by foreign criminals vote against Labor. If you do not want to see Australian women being assaulted by foreign criminals vote against Labor. Send Labor a message'. Should she have sent this tweet?

JANE HUME: Well, obviously, that was based on information that came from the Victorian Police, it came from Border Force. We tend not to second guess Victoria Police and second guess, Border Force. Indeed, it wasn't just the Coalition that relied on it. It was also the Government. Whether the information was accurate or not, is really irrelevant, because this is a government that's released 149 criminal detainees into the community unnecessarily without the advice from the High Court. And that's meant that even though we've given them the power to to impose preventative detention orders to make sure that those people reoffend, can go back into prison. They haven't used that power. It was an urgent power. That was something that they wanted prior to Christmas. Well, two months later, those 149 detainees are still amongst us in the community and around 18 or so we know have reoffended. That's a month old data too. So, you know, quite frankly, you know, whether the information from Vic Police and Border Force was accurate or not is kind of irrelevant. The issue remains that this government has been sorry on its borders and has made hasty decisions. Andrew Giles has proven himself a truly incompetent Immigration Minister.

TOM CONNELL: Well, it was supposed to be example writ large it turned out not to be one we do have to leave it there. Jane Hume appreciate your time. We'll let you get back to volunteering there thank you.